IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible developments linking these different research elements. Such play a crucial role in change literature informing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) support policymakers. This article reviews evolution scenarios, since 1990, focusing scenario critiques responses as published literature. We focus issues raised impact development. The critique (280) focuses four areas: 1) key assumptions (40%), 2) emissions range covered missing (25%), 3) methodological (24%), 4) policy relevance handling uncertainty (11%). Scenario have become increasingly influential 2000. Some areas decreased or less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, economic metrics). Other more dominant over time (e.g., & implications transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) scenarios). Several changes been made developing their content that respond to critique.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0959-3780', '1872-9495']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538